For the First Time in Over a Year, Retail Food Prices Down

 
Phoenix, Ariz., January 16, 2008 – Retail food prices at the supermarket decreased in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to the latest Arizona Farm Bureau Federation Marketbasket Survey. The informal survey shows the total cost of 16 basic grocery items  was $49.20, down 1.4 percent or $.70 cents from the third quarter of 2007, while the American Farm Bureau Federation survey was $41.61, down about 5 percent or $2.42 from the third quarter of 2007.  Arizona Farm Bureau began a quarterly market basket starting the fourth quarter of 2006.
 
Of the 16 items surveyed, seven increased, seven decreased and two stayed the same in the Arizona average price compared to the 2007 third-quarter survey. The national survey shows four increased, ten decreased and two stayed the same. Compared to one year ago, the overall cost for the marketbasket items, after this quarter’s decline, showed a decrease to 13% from a high of 15 % percent in Arizona.
 
In Arizona the largest quarter-to-quarter increase were eggs, up 46 cents  to $2.45 a dozen. Russet potatoes in a 5-pound bag were up 37 cents to $2.86 a pound; red delicious apples were up 27 cents to $1.76 a pound; whole chicken fryers up 20 cents to $1.69 a pound; a 5-pound bag of flour and 32 oz Kraft mayonnaise were both up 7 cents to $2.56 and $3.56, respectively; and a 20-oz loaf of white bread, up 3 cents to $ 1.52. Nationally, toasted oat cereal showed the largest price increase, up 15 cents to $3.05 per 15-oz box, followed by a dozen large eggs, which rose 10 cents per pound to $1.61.  
 
“There are several factors other than ethanol to consider when looking at increased egg prices, “ said Clint Hickman, Hickman’s Family Farms, the largest Arizona-based egg producer. “One chicken per person would fill the demand for eggs, but due to increased demand and the population growth there are not enough chickens. There are no new facilities being built because farmers worry there may not be enough corn to fee their animals. The increased demand is because consumers are using eggs to fill their family’s dietary need for protein.”
 
In Arizona, bacon showed the greatest decrease in price down $1.03 to $2.76 a pound; whole milk was down 44 cents to $3.65 per gallon; ground chuck down 43 cents to $3.42 per pound; corn oil down 10 cents to $2.89 for a 32-oz bottle; toasted oat cereal down 7 cents to $3.42 for the 10-oz box; and Kraft mayonnaise down 3 cents for the 32-oz jar.
 
Prices remained the same on a sirloin tip roast at $4.99 a pound and center cut pork chops at $4.99 a pound. Prices decreased or remained steady on beef and pork due to local supply and meat processing here in Arizona.
 
As retail grocery prices have gradually increased, the share of the average food dollar that America’s farm and ranch families receive has dropped over time.
 
“In the mid-1970s, farmers received about one-third of consumer retail food expenditures on average. That figure has decreased steadily over time and is now just 22 percent, according to Agriculture Department statistics,” said American Farm Bureau Economist Jim Sartwell.
 
Using that percentage across the board, the Arizona farmer’s share of this quarter’s $49.20 marketbasket total would be $10.82.
 
The possibility of higher food costs in 2008 can be anticipated as prices for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton are likely to remain high in the coming months. According to agricultural economists, increasing worldwide demand for these crops is contributing to today’s higher prices, but there are other factors at work. Non-agriculture commodities such as crude oil also are in great demand and trading at record-breaking prices.
Says Arizona Farm Bureau President Kevin Rogers, “On my own farm my fuel costs have more than doubled. While these higher input costs to farm cannot be directly passed on to the consumer, the global demand for these agriculture commodities and oil prices have had a definite impact at the supermarket. It’s good to see food prices drop a bit in the last quarter of 2007 though.” Rogers and his family farm approximately 7,000 acres in the Maricopa County area.
 
The Farm Bureau Marketbasket Survey is unscientific, but serves as a gauge of actual price trends across the state. Bargain shoppers statewide should find individual items at prices comparable to the Farm Bureau survey averages. Shoppers involved in this survey were asked to identify the best in-store price, excluding promotional coupons and special deals.
 
About Arizona Farm Bureau
The Arizona Farm Bureau is a grassroots organization dedicated to preserving and improving the Agriculture industry through member involvement in education, political activities, programs and services. Go to www.azfb.org to learn more. As a member services organization, individuals can become a member by contacting the Farm Bureau. For information on member benefits call 480.635.3606.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Third quarter-2007
 
   Fourth quarter-2007
 
 
 
Arizona
National
 
   Arizona
National
Red Delicious apples
 
 $    1.49
 $    1.49
 
$    1.76
 $     1.27
Russett potatoes, 5 lbs
 $    2.49
 $    2.57
 
   $    2.49
 $     2.29
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ground Chuck, lb.
 
 $    3.85
 $    2.81
 
$    3.85
 $      2.69
Sirloin tip roast, lb.
 
 $    4.99
 $    3.86
 
$    4.99
 $      3.75
Center cut port chops, lb.
 $    4.99
 $    3.39
 
$    4.99
$      3.39
Bacon, lb.
 
 
 $    3.79
 $    3.60
 
$    3.79
$      3.60
Whole fryers, lb.
 
 $    1.49
 $    1.28
 
$    1.49
$      1.28
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Whole milk, gallon
 
 $    4.09
 $    3.94
 
$    4.09
$     3.91
Mild cheddar cheese, lb.
 $    3.99
 $    4.09
 
$    3.99
$     4.10
Eggs, one dozen large, Grade A
 $    1.99
 $    1.51
 
$    1.99
$     1.61
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
All-purpose flour 5 lbs.
 $    2.49
 $    1.91
 
$   2.49
 $     1.70
Mazola corn oil, 32 oz.
 $    2.99
 $    3.01
 
$   2.99
$     2.43
Crisco vegetable oil, 32 oz.
 $    2.79
 $    2.73
 
$   2.79
$     2.25
Kraft mayonnaise, 32 oz.
 $    3.49
 $    3.42
 
$   3.49
$     2.92
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cheerios, 10-oz. Box