Retail Food Prices Rise Slightly in First Quarter '07

Arizona Farm Bureau Begins Quarterly Tracking For Food Prices
 
Phoenix, Ariz., April 4, 2007 – Retail food prices at the supermarket increased slightly in the first quarter of 2007, according to the latest American Farm Bureau Federation Marketbasket Survey. The informal survey shows the total cost of 16 basic grocery items in the first quarter of 2007 was $41.34, up about 4 percent or $1.65 from the fourth quarter of 2006.  The Arizona survey was $44.80, up about 3 percent or $1.43 from the fourth quarter of 2006, when the first quarterly Arizona Marketbasket survey was conducted.
 
Of the 16 items surveyed, 12 increased and four decreased in a national average price compared to the 2006 fourth-quarter survey. Arizona’s survey shows 13 increased and 3 decreased. Compared to one year ago, the national overall cost for the marketbasket items showed a modest increase, up 1.5 percent. 
 
“We believe it’s critical to begin tracking food prices on a quarterly basis in concert with the American Farm Bureau Federation,” says Arizona Farm Bureau President Kevin Rogers. “This way, we can help Arizona consumers manage their food bill and anticipate what the market is doing. It’s also vital to support our agriculture producers in tracking food marketbasket conditions.”
 
Nationally, a dozen large eggs showed the largest price increase, up 33 cents to $1.51. A 5-pound bag of flour increased by 30 cents to $1.90; bacon increased by 24 cents per pound to $3.44; and pork chops rose 22 cents per pound to $3.41. In Arizona sirloin tip roast showed the largest price increase, up 50 cents to $4.99 per pound. Ground chuck increased by 35 cents to $3.69; vegetable oil increased by 38 cents to $3.45; and Cheerios, up 30 cents to $3.39.
 
“For the past several years, eggs have typically increased modestly in retail price from the fourth quarter of one year to the first quarter of the next and this year is no different,” said American Farm Bureau Federation Senior Economist Terry Francl. “Over the past six months or so, increased demand for grains, including soybeans, has resulted in higher purchase prices for processors. This in turn has led to higher retail prices for flour, corn oil, vegetable oil and mayonnaise.”   In addition, “Although red meat products were up somewhat from the last quarter of 2006, they are at or below year-ago retail prices,” Francl said.
 
The share of the average food dollar that America’s farm and ranch families receive has dropped over time, despite gradual increases in retail grocery prices. “In the mid-1970s, farmers received about one-third of consumer retail food expenditures on average. That figure has decreased steadily over time and is now just 22 percent, according to Agriculture Department statistics,” Francl said.
 
Using that percentage across-the-board, the farmer’s share of this quarter’s $44.80 Arizona marketbasket total would be $9.85.
 
Other national items that increased in price:  regular whole milk and Russet potatoes, both up 15 cents, to $3.12 per gallon and $2.46 for a 5-pound bag; corn oil, up 14 cents to $2.77 for a 32-oz. bottle; mayonnaise, up 12 cents to $3.35 for a 32-oz. jar; ground chuck, up 11 cents to $2.65 per pound; sirloin tip roast, up 10 cents to $3.72 per pound; vegetable oil, up 9 cents to $2.57 for a 32-oz. bottle; and toasted oat cereal, up 3 cents to $2.85 for a 10-oz. box.
 
Other Arizona items that increased in price:  regular whole milk, Russet potatoes, and cheddar cheese each up by 30 cents, to $2.99 per gallon, $2.29 for a 5-pound bag and to 2.99 per 1-pound block; corn oil, up 10 cents to $2.69 for a 32-oz. bottle; mayonnaise, up 15 cents to $3.29 for a 32-oz. jar; all-purpose flour up 10 cents to $2.49 for a 5-pound bag; eggs up 19 cents to $1.59 a dozen; bacon up 6 cents to $2.99 per pound; and red delicious apples up 10 cents to 99 cents per pound.
 
Nationally a pound of cheddar cheese showed the largest average retail price decrease, down 10 cents to $3.69.  Other items that decreased in price:  bread, down 9 cents for a 20-oz, loaf to $1.49; whole fryers, down 8 cents to $1.11; and Red Delicious apples, down 6 cents to $1.30 per pound. In Arizona, center cut pork chops decreased in price down $1.15 to $3.99 per pound; bread down 45 cents to $1.49 per loaf; and whole fryers down 10 cents to $1.49 per pound.
 
“Farm and ranch families in Arizona and across the nation take great pride in providing the safest, most abundant and most affordable food supply in the world,” says Ann Palmer, Arizona Farm Bureau Women’s Leadership Committee chair. “While families watch their food dollars at the grocery store, Arizona farmers and ranchers carefully watch their costs to produce healthy and safe food.”
 
The Farm Bureau Marketbasket Survey is unscientific, but serves as a gauge of actual price trends across the state. Bargain shoppers statewide should find individual items at prices comparable to the Farm Bureau survey averages. When shopping for this survey the best in-store price is identified, excluding promotional coupons and special deals.
 
 
 
     4th quarter 2006
 
First quarter 2007
 
 
 
Arizona
National
 
Arizona
National
Red Delicious Apples
 
 $    0.89
 $    1.36
 
$   0.99
 $   1.30
Russett Potatoes, 5 lbs
 $    1.99
 $    2.31
 
$   2.29
 $   2.46
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ground Chuck, lb.
 
 $    3.34
 $    2.54
 
$   3.69
 $   2.65
Sirloin Tip Roast, lb.
 
 $    4.49
 $    3.62
 
$   4.99
 $   3.72
Center Cut Pork Chops, lb.
 $    5.14
 $    3.19
 
$   3.99
 $   3.41
Bacon, lb.
 
 
 $    2.93
 $    3.20
 
$   2.99
 $   3.44
Whole Fryers, lb.
 
 $    1.59
 $    1.19
 
$   1.49
 $   1.11
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Whole Milk, Gallon
 
 $    2.69
 $    2.97
 
$   2.99
 $   3.12
Mild Cheddar Cheese, lb.
 $    2.69
 $    3.79
 
$   2.99
 $   3.69
Eggs, One Dozen, Large, Grade A
 $    1.40
 $    1.18
 
$   1.59
 $   1.51
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
All-purpose Flour 5 lbs.
 $    2.39
 $    1.60
 
$   2.49
 $    1.90
Mazola Corn Oil, 32 oz.
 $    2.59
 $    2.63
 
$   2.69
 $    2.77
Crisco Vegetable Oil, 32 oz.
 $    3.07
 $    2.48
 
$   3.45
$   2.57
Kraft Mayonnaise, 32 oz.
 $    3.14
 $    3.23
 
$   3.29
$   3.35
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cheerios, 10-oz. Box
 
 $    3.09
 $    2.82
 
$   3.39