Agriculture is feeling the heat from escalating trade wars, particularly with the re-emergence of tariffs under the Trump administration. Posts on X and recent analyses suggest that farmers are bracing for a rough ride.

For instance, retaliatory tariffs from countries like China, Mexico, and Canada are making it tough to move crops—think corn and soybeans—with estimates of unsold 2024 harvests potentially costing grain traders between $372 million and $930 million annually due to unpredictable shipping expenses. This echoes past trade disputes, like the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war, where U.S. agricultural exports to China dropped 30%, and farm bankruptcies in the Midwest spiked by 43%.

American Farm Bureau’s (AFBF) economist Betty Resnick reminds us that tariffs are a double-whammy for producers in agriculture. “Farmers not only end up paying more for inputs, they also often take the brunt of retaliatory tariffs,” wrote Resnick in a March 18 Market Report. “With over 20% of U.S. agricultural good exported, retaliatory tariffs can pose a major threat to farmers’ ability to turn a profit. The most recent round of U.S.-imposed tariffs and subsequent retaliation are no different. The three top countries targeted for tariffs to date: Mexico, Canada and China, are also our top three markets for agriculture exports at $30.3 billion, $28.3 billion and $24.7 billion, respectively, in 2024.”

In another Market Intel Report, AFBF highlighted how much of our agricultural exports are sent by ocean shipments, representing nearly 60% of total ag export value and 65% by volume. The current administration has proposed a series of fees targeting ocean carriers with ties to China.

Food Prices

Food prices are another hot spot. The consensus from a variety of sources and sentiment on various platforms is that tariffs are poised to impact grocery bills. Imports like fertilizers, seeds, and key ingredients could become pricier or harder to source, with little domestic backup. Historical data backs this up—retaliatory tariffs from 2018-2020 cut U.S. agricultural exports by $27 billion, hitting soybeans hardest, and the National Bureau of Economic Research found that the 2018 trade war shaved $1.4 billion off U.S. consumers’ income monthly via higher prices.

Yes, egg prices have fallen recently, based on available data up to the posting of this article. Wholesale egg prices in the U.S. have been trending downward throughout March, following a peak earlier in the year driven by factors like the ongoing bird flu outbreak. For instance, reports indicate that the average wholesale price for a dozen large white eggs dropped from over $8 in February to around $4.15 by mid-March, according to the USDA. This decline is attributed to a lull in major bird flu outbreaks, allowing egg supplies to begin recovering.

Retail prices, which often lag wholesale changes, have also shown signs of easing. While the average retail national average price for a dozen Grade A large eggs hit a record high of $5.90 in February, reports suggest that by mid-March, prices were falling, with some sources noting a national average dipping below $5. This aligns with the natural delay between wholesale price drops and retail adjustments, as stores sell through existing inventory bought at higher rates.

However, the extent of the decline varies by region and retailer, and prices remain significantly higher than historical lows (e.g., $2.04 in August 2023). The drop offers some relief after months of steep increases—egg prices had risen over 170% from December 2019 to December 2024 due to supply shortages and steady demand. While the situation is improving, experts caution that prices could fluctuate again if new bird flu outbreaks occur or if holiday demand (like Easter) spikes. So, yes, prices have fallen, but they’re still elevated compared to pre-crisis levels, and the trend’s stability isn’t guaranteed. AFBF noted in one of their market reports that eggs are considered an inelastic good, meaning even when egg prices change, consumers still buy about the same amount. Unlike other products, in many applications such as baking, eggs don’t have good substitutes. Eggs are healthy, also known as nutrient-dense, and typically the most affordable source of protein on the market.

Looking at the international scene again, China’s push for self-reliance, hiking tariffs on U.S. chicken, corn, and wheat, might also shift trade flows elsewhere, but that’s cold comfort for American farmers staring at a record agricultural trade deficit, as our economists are pointing out at AFBF.

The vibe with tariffs is tense—farmers and consumers alike are jittery about markets getting squeezed and prices climbing. Climate issues, the high cost of California food regulations impacting other states, and bird flu are already nudging food inflation up, and tariffs could pile on the pain.

That said, these trends are fluid; the full impact hinges on how long these trade spats drag on and whether mitigation, like supports, kick in again. What’s clear is that agriculture and food prices are in for a bumpy 2025 if these patterns hold.