Snowpack across much of the Western U.S. sits well below historical averages this spring, curbing expected runoff and tightening water supplies as the growing season begins. The shortfall is already forcing tighter irrigation allocations for farmland and pressuring forage availability for livestock, setting the stage for challenging production decisions among farmers and ranchers. With drought risks elevated in several key basins, the region’s agricultural operators face another year of navigating scarce resources amid broader uncertainty over water reliability. American Farm Bureau’s economic team investigated the matter.

Western agriculture occupies a commanding position in the U.S. food system. The Western states generate most of the nation’s fruit, vegetable, and tree nut output by value—typically more than 70% overall and exceeding 90% for many individual commodities. At the same time, the region maintains substantial shares of U.S. cattle and calf inventories, dairy production, wheat and hay, tying these sectors closely to the availability of irrigation water and rangeland forage.

Production systems vary widely, from highly irrigated specialty crops in the Southwest and Pacific states to rangeland-based livestock operations and dryland wheat farming across the Mountain West and Northern Plains. The current snowpack deficits threaten to disrupt this diverse output, with potential ripple effects on national supplies and prices for everything from fresh produce and nuts to beef and dairy products.

In one of its latest Market Intel reports, American Farm Bureau’s economic team took a serious look at what this year’s snowpack out west means for agriculture. The data is concerning, causing farmers and ranchers in the west to assess what this means for this growing season. Full Market Intel.