The federal Bureau of Reclamation finalized its plans on Aug. 21 to limp the Colorado River through the next 10 years.

The bureau formally adopted the framework it released weeks ago with no major changes, as well as a newly released, more detailed 2-year operating plan for the river.

This finalized framework does not set how much water various users can expect. Specific water cuts and releases must be spelled out in each 2-year operating plan.

But the first of those plans largely reflects the proposal that Arizona, California and Nevada made earlier in the summer:

Smaller overall cuts that are shared more equitably among the three Lower Basin states, with extra capacity to store water in Lake Mead and a newly created federal pool to fulfill tribal water obligations, among other provisions.

2-year plan takes a lighter touch

The three states must divvy up 1.25 million acre-feet in mandatory water cuts.

That’s far deeper than anything they have faced to date, but far shallower than the 3 million acre-feet annual cut that Reclamation had proposed. 

Arizona will still face the largest portion of those cuts — a 760,000 acre-feet mandatory cut in 2027 and 2028, plus at least 300,000 acre-feet in voluntary water savings over those two years.

It’s a painful prospect for cities across metro Phoenix and Tucson, which must now absorb a projected 14% shortage in Central Arizona Project’s municipal water pool.

But it’s also a far cry from the 77% cut they could have faced — “an unacceptable disaster,” as Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs characterized it in a statement.

“Instead,” Hobbs said, “we’ve united as a Lower Basin to deliver two years of stability that ensures Arizona families and businesses will have the water they need to thrive and continue our strong economic growth.”

Arizona may be asked to do more

Deeper cuts aren’t completely off the table, even through 2028.

Though Reclamation intends to release 6 to 7 million acre-feet of water annually from Lake Powell next year, it could still lower that release to 5 million acre-feet if Lake Powell is forecast to fall below 3,500 feet of elevation.

Which, in turn, could quickly tank Lake Mead.

As it is, Lower Basin states will be asked to do more to stabilize Lake Mead once it is forecast to hit 1,010 feet of elevation — a mark the lake is already projected to reach next summer.

How much more? No one knows.

How deeper cuts could play out

The 10-year framework allows for up to 3 million acre-feet in mandatory cuts to keep the lakes above their target elevations and if the seven states that rely on those reservoirs cannot agree to an alternate deal.

Reclamation modeled how such a cut could play out in its framework.

It’s not pleasant for Arizona.

There are “no potential futures” where users in Central Arizona Project’s municipal and industrial pool would receive a normal water delivery through 2039.

Yuma irrigation districts with higher third-priority water rights are projected to fare better initially, receiving more than 80% of their appropriations in about half of those years.

But they also could face much deeper cuts starting in 2029 that could take more than 40% of Yuma farmland out of production.

All farmers could feel the impact

This level of uncertainty doesn’t just affect those with Colorado River contracts.

Water demand could change in unpredictable ways as central Arizona cities scramble to replace lost water.

That could produce ripple effects for groundwater-dependent farmers near urban areas and for those in the state’s groundwater transportation basins, which were set aside decades ago for cities to tap.

Farmers are already feeling the pinch of lower prices for what they produce, coupled with increased fertilizer, fuel and labor costs.

Persistent domestic worker shortages are leaving produce in places like Yuma to rot on the vine.

Inconsistent water availability makes it even more difficult to plan for the new few years — much less for the next generation.

“This starts to change decisions,” said Shawn Wood, Arizona Farm Bureau’s first vice president whose family relies on groundwater and surface water to farm near fast-growing Buckeye.

“We may not see the impacts yet. But markets don’t respond well to uncertainty, and neither does agriculture.”


Joanna Allhands writes about water, land use and other issues important to the Arizona Farm Bureau. Reach her at joannaallhands@azfb.org.