No one wins if the federal government cuts 3 million acre-feet of Colorado River water from Arizona, California and Nevada.

That would zero out the Central Arizona Project, which delivers water to cities and tribes in metro Phoenix and Tucson, and severely cut the water that Yuma needs to grow winter vegetables for the nation.

Arizona has thrown a buzzer-beater, hoping to stave off the most catastrophic effects of a federal proposal to manage the river for the next decade.

Here are five things that farmers should know about this effort:

1. Expect more voluntary cuts

State water officials are aggressively lobbying the feds to adopt the Lower Basin’s proposal for the next two years.

It includes a painful but more palatable 1.25 million acre-feet in mandatory cuts each year across the three states, as well as 700,000 acre-feet in voluntary water savings through 2028.

But users may be asked to volunteer more water — at least a million acre-feet — during that time. 

That could be tough, considering that most voluntary deals in Arizona to date have come from the cities and tribes that must shoulder the plan’s mandatory cuts. 

The good news is those cuts could be less severe than initially expected. 

By tapping water in Lake Pleasant and wells in Yuma, Central Arizona Project is now projecting a 14% shortage in its municipal water pool, instead of 20%.

Even still, broader involvement will likely be needed to meet this more aggressive voluntary savings goal. 

And that will take some creativity to surmount the legal, contractual and physical hurdles that have made it difficult for users in Yuma and Mohave counties to participate.

2. ICS could face more limits

The feds want more limits on how much Intentionally Created Surplus (ICS) can be removed from Lake Mead.

Because 40% of the water in the lake was stored by cities and tribes for their own use, there is concern that a run on this water would leave too little to deliver to Yuma irrigation districts and others with senior rights.

The proposal now is to limit the three states’ ICS use to 800,000 acre-feet through 2028, or no more than 400,000 acre-feet in a year.

3. Lake Mead could go a lot lower

The feds have long drawn a line in the sand at Lake Mead — a water level that is simply too low to cross.

If Mead was projected to hit 1,025 feet of elevation, the feds would require additional action from the states to keep the lake from dipping to 1,000 feet.

But the goalpost moved earlier this year, to 975 feet.

Any water stored below that point is essentially inaccessible, leaving no buffer for dry years and even more uncertainty about the lake’s ability to generate the affordable hydropower on which many Arizona farmers rely.

Funding has been secured for up to three turbines that can operate at lower water levels. 

But they won’t be online by fall when the lake is projected to fall below 1,035 feet, a level too low for 12 of the lake’s 17 turbines to operate.

4. Stored water may not last long

The Arizona Water Banking Authority has stored 3.8 million acre-feet of Colorado River water underground for some cities, tribes and on-river users to tap in times of shortage.

But big questions remain about who gets it, under what circumstances, and in what quantities.

There is pressure to resolve them in the next few weeks, as cities are looking for water to backfill what they could lose from CAP.

A 2023 analysis found that if 20% of current demands are filled, there is enough water to sustain users for roughly 14 to 28 years, depending on which active management area they are located.

But meeting 100% would deplete this supply in about 3 to 6 years.

5. Uncertainty reigns

Are we doing enough to save Lake Mead? It’s a tough question to answer with this much last-minute uncertainty.

Arizona’s initial modeling of the Lower Basin plan found the lake would be about 13 to 40 feet higher in 2028 than if we continued the status quo.

But even under the best-case scenario, the lake would be hovering just above 1,020 feet of elevation by then; under the worst, it would be closer to 980.

It’s unclear how federal tweaks might change those numbers — in part because conversations about the tweaks are still ongoing.

No modeling has been released on what a 3 million acre-feet cut might do.

Meanwhile, federal officials have said they need extra time to solidify the details, missing initial hopes of clearer direction by late June.

Depending on how long that takes, there may not be time for public comments on their plan.

A final decision must come before Oct. 1.


Joanna Allhands writes about water, land use and other issues important to the Arizona Farm Bureau. Reach her at joannaallhands@azfb.org.