The federal government has released a basic sketch of its plan to manage the imperiled Colorado River after 2026.

It’s not a pretty picture for Arizona.

State water officials walked through the bullet points on May 13.

For now, there is more that we don’t know about how this is supposed to work than what we do know.

The federal Bureau of Reclamation is expected to release its preferred alternative — and the full details backing why it is proposing that path — by the end of June.

But based on what we know so far:

  • The 10-year framework would be broken into five 2-year plans.
  • Water releases from Lake Powell to Lake Mead over the next decade could reach a new record low — as little as 5 million acre-feet, depending on conditions.
  • The Lower Basin states — Arizona, California and Nevada — could face water reductions of up to 3 million acre-feet a year.
  • The feds intend to release as much water as possible from upstream reservoirs to help shore up Lake Powell.
  • Reclamation also proposes allowing users to store additional water in the lakes — perhaps as much as 3 million acre-feet in Lake Powell and 8 million acre-feet in Lake Mead.

10 years? Isn’t that short?

It’s half the length of the current guidelines. They went into effect in 2007, when the Colorado River was in much better shape.

The idea now is to set general operating guidelines for the next decade and use them to flesh out more specific management plans every 2 years.

A shorter timeframe could help ensure that the rules are flexible enough to match ever-changing conditions.

But it also would put water officials in a near-constant state of negotiation, which also could produce even more brinkmanship and uncertainty.

How deep could cuts go?

The federal framework includes mandatory water cuts in Arizona, California and Nevada of up to 3 million acre-feet a year. 

That’s twice as deep as what the three states have proposed taking in 2027 and 2028. 

Though a state-by-state breakdown has not yet been released, Arizona is expected to shoulder the lion’s share of cuts. 

And that could be economically devastating for the state.

A cut of this magnitude would dry up the Central Arizona Project, which now primarily serves cities and tribes.

And it would require cuts, for the first time, of Yuma irrigation districts that hold higher-priority water rights and supply nearly all the nation’s leafy greens in the winter.

Would this fix the lakes?

It’s too early to tell. Reclamation has not detailed how a 3 million acre-feet cut would impact lake levels, though an analysis is underway.

Meanwhile, Arizona water officials have modeled the impact of the Lower Basin plan and are confident that it would put both lakes in better shape than if we continued with the status quo. 

Lake Powell would be 11 to 60 feet higher by the end of 2028, depending on how dry the next few winters are.

And Lake Mead would have an extra 13 to 40 feet of water — enough to protect it from almost certain catastrophe if we don’t do more.

What about Upper Basin states?

Rather than imposing cuts in Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, federal officials intend to move as much water as possible from upstream reservoirs to prop up Lake Powell, using provisions in existing agreements.

Reclamation also has proposed creating a new pool of up to 3 million acre-feet of stored water in Lake Powell, though details are scant on how this might work.

The agency floated a similar idea several years ago to reduce water use and shepherd those savings into Lake Powell. But accounting for the savings proved difficult, and the program never fully materialized.

The federal framework also could allow others to store significantly more water than they are now at Lake Mead. Already, 3.2 million acre-feet — some 40% of water in the lake — is stored as Intentionally Created Surplus, which cities, tribes and others can later remove.

What happens now?

Arizona, California and Nevada want Reclamation to adopt their 2-year plan in its entirety.

It’s unclear whether the feds will agree.

If they do, it’s likely that some details — including the Lower Basin’s proposed revisions to Intentionally Created Surplus withdrawals — will change.

Negotiations are ongoing.


Joanna Allhands writes about water, land use and other issues important to the Arizona Farm Bureau. Reach her at joannaallhands@azfb.org.