For many Americans, ground beef and ribeye are what’s for dinner.

Demand is up, even as prices have hit record highs.

That might sound like a win-win for producers, but in many ways, these are both the best and worst of times for the industry.

High prices and a prolonged restriction on Mexican cattle imports brought top dollar for the young steers and heifers sold by cow-calf producers.

But those same market forces have squeezed finishers and processors that send beef to grocery stores and restaurants.

All of which has made it difficult to rebuild herds and stabilize the industry — even as the number of cattle in America has reached a 75-year low.

It takes years to finish beef


Righting this ship won’t happen overnight.

While it takes about 12 weeks to produce a chicken breast, it can take up to 3 years to move beef from the pasture to your plate.

The path begins with cow-calf producers. Calves stay with their mothers until they are weaned at 6 to 10 months, weighing up to 700 pounds.

Cow-calf producers then have a choice:

Sell heifers — young females that have not yet had a calf — along with steers for their beef, or retain them to breed?

Retaining heifers helps producers grow their herds.

But it also requires them to absorb production costs for another two years until heifers are ready to have their first calves.

Facing high feed prices, prolonged drought and regulatory hang-ups that have made grazing on public land more difficult, producers have chosen to cull their herds.

“If a rancher can sell a heifer for $2,500, he’s not going to keep it,” said Yavapai County Farm Bureau Vice President Tim Petersen, who runs a grass-fed beef operation.

Feds want to grow cattle herds

The Trump administration has announced a slew of initiatives to reverse these trends.

It recently expanded an insurance program to pay producers if the sales price for heifers exceeds the value of keeping them for breeding, for example.

It also promised to cut permitting delays and expand grazing access on the federal public lands on which most Arizona ranchers rely.

But importing more lean beef trimmings has not lowered the price of ground beef nationally for consumers.

Instead, domestic cattle prices have fallen — even as high diesel prices and restrictions to stop New World Screwworm spread are raising transportation costs, further squeezing bottom lines.

Requiring country-of-origin labeling also could come with trade-offs.

Few consumers know that “we already export a lot of our beef because it’s so high quality and import a lot of the leaner cuts,” said Dalton Dobson, an Apache County cow-calf producer and Farm Bureau member.

But if labels stigmatize cheaper, leaner cuts, “then you’re increasing prices for people who are truly on a budget,” he said.

Demand for beef is high, for now

Ground beef and ribeye have dominated the meat market for decades.

But demand is growing — which though it gets far less attention than a diminished supply, also explains why prices remain so high.

Revised federal dietary guidelines emphasize eating more protein.

And those taking GLP-1 medications to suppress appetites are increasingly choosing beef for the protein necessary to maintain muscle during weight loss.

Taste is a primary factor in these and other purchasing decisions, polls show.

Beef is riding high amid a national conversation about where our food comes from and how it is produced.

But how long will that last?

It’s a question many producers are now asking.

How much change is too much?

Petersen, who processes the beef he raises in his own USDA-inspected facility, has seen an uptick in callers asking for locally produced meat and tallow.

But he is struggling to earn federal approval to put more cattle on the federal grazing allotments he manages.

And even if he could grow his herd, he’d need to expand his facility to process the meat.

Which also could be risky, particularly if demand evaporates by the time extra cattle are ready for market.

Polls show that prices are becoming a greater factor in purchasing decisions, as a growing number of consumers say their finances are worse than a year ago.

“That’s what makes me nervous,” Dobson said.

“We’re making all these changes to make beef cheaper, but what if we play with the market too much and end up making it harder for producers to make a profit?”


Joanna Allhands writes about water, land use and other issues important to the Arizona Farm Bureau. Reach her at joannaallhands@azfb.org.